Honest-status quant research desk

An honest-status quant research desk.

Onyx Quant is one research suite with two arms — Crypto and Precious-Metal. Every piece of research carries an honest status label: what is live and audited, and what is still being validated. Each one has passed two independent AI audits. Not a black box. No execution. Not investment advice — you see the reasoning, you make the call.

Informational research tool only. No trade execution. We publish the reasoning; the decision is always yours.

Crisis-shield research

32 years, standing through every major crisis.

A volatility-targeted, multi-asset trend basket, studied across three decades of market history. The point of it is not to win the boom — it is to be the parachute that opens when markets fall apart. This is a historical study, not a live or realized return.

[BACKTEST — not live]
When the S&P fell, what did the basket do?
Year Crisis S&P 500 Trend basket

Calendar-year moves, in %. In 2001, 2002, 2008 and 2022 the S&P fell while the trend basket held up or gained. [BACKTEST — historical study, not a live or realized return.]

Growth of 100, log scale (1995 → 2026)
Trend basket S&P 500 buy & hold

[BACKTEST — historical study, not live or realized returns.] Log scale so every crash is visible across 31 years. The basket line is far smoother through crises; the S&P line climbs much higher overall in calm decades.

The honest weakness (we say it openly)

In a bull market, buy-and-hold made far more money — the S&P's total return over 31 years is much higher. And over the last 10 years (no big crisis), buy-and-hold was clearly ahead. This is insurance: the price of it is lagging in the calm years. You are trading away some upside for protection when it matters.

How the shield works

The engine and the parachute.

A simple, transparent way to think about a portfolio — no magic, no black box. You balance two jobs, and you set the dial yourself.

🏎️ The engine — hold the market

Most of the time, markets drift up. The engine is simply staying invested so you catch the boom. On its own it is exposed: when a real crisis hits, it falls with everything else.

🪂 The parachute — trend protection

The trend basket is the parachute. In calm years it mostly sits quietly (and costs you a little). In a sustained crash it tends to open — which is exactly when the engine alone would hurt the most.

🎚️ Balance the two — your dial

How much engine, how much parachute, is a transparent setting — not a secret. More engine = more upside and more pain in a crash. More parachute = calmer ride, less boom. You decide; we just show the trade-off honestly.

Why we don't sell leverage

We tested cranking up leverage to chase bigger numbers. It backfired: in our study the gains shrank and the risk shot up. So we don't sell it — and we're telling you plainly instead of hiding it.

A way to read the research — not investment advice, and not a promise of any outcome. The decision is always yours.

Live research desk

The desk, live.

A live read of every research line on a single feed: what is on watch, what is being validated, and what we retired. The blinking light is a freshness / regime indicator — it is not a profit signal and nothing here is winning or losing money for you.

Status board

Tap any line for the plain-language reason behind its status. Regime lights reflect market data freshness, not profit.

Why Onyx is different

Statistical rigor, radical honesty, trader-first.

Most tools show you only their winners. We organize the entire research suite around honest status — and we publish the research we rejected.

📐

Real discipline under every research note

Every proven research note has to survive a hard statistical screen before it earns a ✅ — and we treat that as honest methodology, never as a promised return.

🤖

Two independent AI audits

Before any item earns a ✅ status, it survives two independent AI review passes plus a 130+ research-package screen.

⚰️

We show what we killed

A public Graveyard of 27+ rejected research models and why each one died. We kill far more than we publish.

🏷️

Honest status, never hype

✅ Proven and 🟡 Validating research are clearly separated. Validating items are marked information-only — never sold as proven.

🎛️

Alert, not execution

Onyx sends insight and alerts. There is no auto-trading and no black box. You keep control of every decision.

🧩

One account, two arms

Crypto and precious-metal research under a single login and a single subscription. No more juggling 5 tools.

130+
research packages screened
2
independent AI audits per item
27+
research models rejected (and published)
2
research arms, one account
✅ Proven shelf

A look at what survived the screen.

These items survived a 130+ package screen and two independent AI audits, and their monitors run on a live feed. Subscription buttons are visible but switched off while our payment provider review is pending.

The trust moat

We kill far more than we publish.

VCB, Funding-Carry 068, Token-Unlock LONG, TCD-ETH, Fear & Greed Contrarian, BTC Mean-Reversion — and many more. The Graveyard shows every rejected strategy and exactly why it died. A ✅ label means it survived the screen.

onyx // screen log
# 130+ packages screened VCB KILL no real edge once we removed the market Funding-068 KILL the numbers measured only part of it TCD-ETH KILL a cutoff date had flattered it F&G Contrarian KILL it was just the calm-market mood --------------------------------- FZ-LONG PASS survived screen + 2 AI audits H3 / N3 PASS survived screen + 2 AI audits
Important. Onyx Quant is a professional research and analytics tool. The final trading decision and risk management are the user’s own. It does not provide investment, financial, legal or tax advice and does not execute trades. Past and backtested performance do not indicate future results; trading carries risk of loss. Payments are not yet enabled while our payment provider (Creem) store review is pending. Full terms on the Legal / Terms of Use page.

See the reasoning. Make your own call.

Browse the honest-status research across both arms, read the Graveyard, and check the plans.

Explore the research See plans